"This is the third year for me to exhaust the new energy number. At the end of last year (new energy vehicles in 2020), I saw that the new energy vehicles were coming to me, so I went to pick up the car 15 days ago without hesitation. During the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic, I felt that I could not feel completely assured of taking public transport, but I was very happy to buy a new energy vehicle in time. Lu Xiaofu, who lives in xuezhiyuan District, Haidian District, Beijing, told reporters.

Although many people are worried that the epidemic will bring resistance to car sales, in the view of many users, the impact is more limited to short-term emotional fluctuations, far less specific and real than the impact of car prices, consumption and financial policies.

Recently, the U.S. stock market has broken, and the global crude oil price has plummeted, causing a great uproar from all walks of life. At the same time novel coronavirus pneumonia was gradually improved in China under strict control and prevention, and Europe began to become the epicenter of the epidemic. So, will the superposition of these factors further affect the trend of global new energy vehicle market?

Falling oil price will not cause "earthquake" in new energy automobile industry

The oil price has collapsed, and the crackdown has turned into a "dimension reduction strike", which is not good news for the new energy vehicle market, the "home to home" of fuel vehicles. Many insiders expect that the sales volume of new energy vehicles will be affected in the short term, but it will not affect the overall trend of the development of new energy vehicles.

"In the short term, when the new energy vehicle is just a simple replacement of the power system, the price of crude oil will fall, and the use cost of fuel vehicles will fall accordingly, and the economy of new energy vehicles will be relatively weakened, which may have a certain impact on the sales volume of new energy vehicles. However, in the long run, the core driving factors of new energy vehicles replacing traditional fuel vehicles have changed from the previous travel cost saving to the intelligent development of vehicles. Therefore, a sharp drop in crude oil will not change the development trend of this industry. " Liu Junting, equity manager of Ping An fund, said.

Wang Di, manager of financing new energy vehicle fund, predicted that the development of new energy vehicle industry in 2020 should be analyzed from three main lines: first, the domestic subsidy policy is implemented, and the expected subsidy decrease is small; second, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in the European market is growing rapidly, mainly due to the assessment of carbon emission regulations and the introduction of strong support policies by various countries; third, a new energy vehicle giant is about to launch a new car It is expected to change the whole ecology of the automobile industry.

In terms of the epidemic, Wang said the impact will not last long. "At present, countries have introduced further economic support policies to hedge the impact of the epidemic. At present, the situation of the overseas epidemic is severe, which is expected to have an impact on the European market. On the one hand, the public may delay consumption, on the other hand, the deterioration of the economy has affected the consumption capacity. But for new energy vehicles, the rapid increase in penetration has been irreversible, and new energy vehicle giants have begun to change the whole automobile industry ecology, or the unprecedented big change in the automobile industry, which may contain huge opportunities. "

Germany drives into the "fast lane" of electric vehicle enterprises in the world

No matter from the early data analysis or the prediction of experts in the industry, 2020 is considered to be an important turning year for the European automobile industry to advance towards the carbon emission reduction target and for China's new energy vehicles to move towards full marketization.

From the performance of global new energy vehicles in 2019, the growth of new energy vehicles in China and the United States slows down. After the implementation of carbon emission policy and wltp (world light vehicle test procedure), the growth in Europe has entered the fast lane, and driven German and even global vehicle enterprises to accelerate electric planning.

Stefan brazier, head of the German automobile management center, an automobile market research organization, said that Germany is in a "catch-up position" in the world's electric travel field, striving to make a breakthrough in 2020.

At the beginning of the year, the Federal Motor Vehicle Administration of Germany released the latest data: among the newly approved vehicles on the road in 2019, the number of hybrid vehicles and electric vehicles increased significantly compared with 2018. According to the data, in 2019, the new registration volume of hybrid vehicles and electric vehicles in Germany was about 239000 and 63000 respectively, an increase of 83.7% and 75.5% over 2018. All kinds of new energy vehicle models, such as pure electric, plug-in hybrid, liquefied gas power, are increasingly favored by consumers, with a very rapid growth momentum.

As of January 2020, the number of new energy vehicles in Germany has reached 283400, according to German manager magazine. This also further stimulates the German major automobile enterprises to increase the strength of the automobile electric transformation.

Daimler group plans to launch more than 10 pure electric vehicles by 2022. In the next five years, Volkswagen Group will invest 60 billion euros in hybrid, electric travel and digital fields, achieving the long-term goal of accumulatively selling 26 million pure electric vehicles by 2029. BMW plans to launch 25 hybrid models and 12 pure electric models by 2025.

Not only that, the subsidy policy of German federal government also promotes the development of new energy automobile industry. Since 2016, the German government has launched an environmental protection subsidy policy to subsidize the purchase of new energy vehicles with a pre tax price of no more than 60000 euros, with the cost shared equally by the government and the automobile manufacturers. In order to further attract consumers, in November 2019, the German government and representatives of the automobile industry reached an agreement to extend the environmental protection subsidy policy to 2025 while continuing to increase subsidies.

Countries still face severe challenges in developing new energy vehicles

Under the background of the overall decline of subsidies and the comprehensive electrification of traditional leading vehicle enterprises, the demand of new energy vehicle industry chain and the pressure of cost reduction are rising, and opportunities and challenges coexist.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said recently: "the UK will ban the sale of gasoline and diesel vehicles in 2035." In addition to the UK, several European countries have made clear the time node of banning fuel vehicles. At the current stage, it is the goal that most countries in the world are pursuing to achieve the goal set by the Paris Agreement as soon as possible and achieve net zero emissions.

According to the latest data from the British Automobile Industry Association, the total number of new car registrations in the UK in February this year was 79594, down 2.9% year on year. Among them, the registered volume of pure electric vehicles was 2508, a three fold increase, and the light hybrid models and plug-in hybrid models also increased by 71.9% and 49.9% respectively. But in fact, even though new energy vehicles have multiplied, their market share in the UK is still only 5.8%. Therefore, the UK hopes to ban fuel vehicles in 2035, which is far from the target.

In order to speed up the process of the "fuel ban order", the UK drew on the "China Sample", planned to exempt the purchase tax of new energy vehicles, and extended the purchase subsidy of electric vehicles to be cancelled after 2023, except that the new energy subsidy was reduced from the previous single vehicle of ￡ 3500 to ￡ 3000 (only for models priced below ￡ 50000). That is to say, an ordinary family in the UK can save 80000 yuan by purchasing a new energy vehicle with a price of about 400000 yuan, through policies such as purchase tax and subsidies.

Although Germany is ready to develop in the new energy automobile industry, it is not a "leader" at present. Recently, German Chancellor Angela Merkel promised to the public that she would achieve the goal of 7-10 million electric vehicles on the road and 1 million public charging piles by 2030. However, the voice of Germany pointed out that despite the increasing attention of all parties in Germany to new energy vehicles and the continuous increase of promotion efforts, there are still short boards in the development of this industry. For example, Germany currently has only about 220000 electric vehicles on the road, far from the goal of 7 million. Most of the public charging piles are concentrated in big cities and surrounding areas, and many parts of rural areas are not covered.

Look back home. About whether to choose new energy vehicles, the reporter interviewed several owners. Ms. Yang Meili, who lives in Dewai street, Xicheng District, Beijing, has been driving for more than 8 years and has run 50000 kilometers in total. Recently, she is planning to change cars. "Although the market of new energy vehicles has been hot in recent years, I prefer to change fuel vehicles after watching. If we think about new energy vehicles later, we will still see how the endurance and battery usage can be improved. At present, it seems not very mature. " Yang Meili told reporters.

"It's been ten days since the new car was brought back. It's been driven for more than 100 kilometers. So far, it hasn't been charged. The experience is pretty good. The power is 53%." Lu Xiaofu, who just bought a new energy vehicle, said, "although I seldom go out because of the epidemic, I also consume 1% of the electricity every day without driving. And our community is a car rental system, so we can't install charging piles. We can only search nearby public charging piles. Fortunately, it's not so far away. "

In response to these problems, although the major new energy vehicle manufacturers have introduced some policies, such as battery replacement, battery extension, replacement and recovery concessions, and also made a lot of efforts in the layout of charging facilities, improving endurance mileage, etc., the effect is still not as expected.

Therefore, no matter the short board on the endurance, inconvenient charging, low battery attenuation, low maintenance rate, or the current economic pressure caused by oil price, epidemic situation and other factors, it may bring the inhibition on the consumption level in a period of time. But in the long run, only by fundamentally solving the "endurance anxiety" of owners, can new energy vehicles break through the bottleneck and usher in a brilliant summer.

Source: China Environmental News